Donnie Barrels

I fulfilled an adult dream of getting season tickets to the San Francisco Giants in 2021. I became familiar with this new team and their players, and something about Donovan Solano—Donnie Barrels to his friends—rubbed me the wrong way. I don’t know if it was how he carried himself at second base, or his inconsistent hitting on a team that won 107 games, but I was pretty down on him all year.

After spending 2022 with the Cincinnati Reds, he signed with the Twins in February this year. I wasn’t bullish on this acquisition, but with the season nearing its end I’m all in on Donnie. He’s playing a good-enough first base and seems like he’s always the one with clutch hits. However, I didn’t want to rely on the eye test. I have the tools to determine whether my baseball opinions are correct.

A Simple Comparison

In 2021, Solano hit .280 and had an OPS+ of 103 across 101 games . This represents offensive production just a smidge over the MLB average 100. He did reach a career high in home runs (7) and RBI (31), but this was also the most games he’d played in since 2014 in Miami so comparing counting stats is not enlightening. He did just enough to accrue 1.1 WAR.¹His performance was worth 1.1 wins for the Giants above an “average” replacement player, meaning a player who’s just good enough to eke out a living in MLB. WAR is also a “counting” stat that accumulates throughout the season (or, if you have a slump, can tumble back down.)

Through August 2023, Solano has shown some offensive improvement. He’s hitting .288 with an OPS+ of 113 across 115 games. He has 30 RBI, so it’s likely he’ll barely eclipse his total from 2021 (though he’ll also play in more games.) He’s walking a bit more this year—just shy of 10% of the time compared to 7.3% in 2021—but none of these numbers clearly address why he seems so much better this year.²We can acknowledge the potential bias of a lifelong Twins fan, but I’m not a real “homer”. I love the team, but am critical of its players. The real bias is that I watched dozens of Giants games in person in 2021, while I’ve watched maybe a dozen Twins games in full this year on TV, instead mainly watching highlights. That can certainly skew perspective. Besides, his WAR so far this year is just a slightly-improved 1.3.

Hit Quality

Two numbers jumped out on Solano’s advanced batting line: His BABIP³Batting Average on Balls in Play. Basically, if he actually manages to make contact with the ball so that it could be a hit, how often does it become a hit?, and his Hard Hit percentage.⁴How often does he hit a ball at least 95 MPH off the bat. This year he’s hitting over 50 points higher on balls in play compared to 2021 (.377 versus .321). And 44.4% of his batted balls have been “hard hits” this year compared to 36.6% in 2021. These statistics often have positive correlation: A ball hit harder is more likely to find its way past the defense. This effect is exaggerated by his increased percentage of line drives this year: 35% compared to 28% in 2021. Line drives are the hardest balls to defend against because, when hit hard, an infielder has to be in precisely the right place to make the play otherwise it’s likely going to fall in the outfield short of where the outfielders are positioned.

These numbers give one reason for my improved judgement of Solano. Hitting a ball harder on a line is something noticeable that I appreciate. Even if he isn’t getting on base significantly more frequently, when he makes contact it’s good quality and he reaches base more often.⁵I will note he’s also striking out 6% more this year than in 2021. We’ll address that in a bit. That’s an exciting element to his game. But it also matters when he’s getting those hits, because certain situations will stay in my memory far better.

The Clutch Factor

Late-inning heroics are memorable. A key hit when the game is on the line brings frantic excitement to players and fans alike. It sticks with you for days, weeks, months after.

Is this why Donnie is back in my favor?

At first glance the numbers don’t suggest this at all. Solano’s effect on how likely his team is to win—his Win Probability Added or WPA—is remarkably similar between these two years. In 2021 he had a WPA of 0.8, meaning all his batting events contributed an increased chance of winning 0.8 games across the season. He’s bumped his numbers up this year to get to an even 1.0, but that’s a minimal difference. It doesn’t appear that he’s managed to affect games anymore this year than in 2021. So, we have to look at specific situations.

First, we can consider the Clutch factor. This gives us a sense of how much of his WPA is due to high-leverage situations—being clutch in key moments—and how much is from grinding out the basics, being just a little better than average. His Clutch factor of 0.7 this year gives us a good indicator that his WPA has accumulated during important moments, while in 2021 it was just 0.2.

Another tool is the RE24 stat, which compares how many runs are expected to score before and after he goes to hit. By adding these differences, we get a sense of whether he, on average, leaves a team in a better or worse offensive situation. In 2021 his RE24 was 0.5, meaning across the entire season his net effect was an increase of 0.5 expected runs above average. So far in 2023 it’s a superb 11.2. It seems that Solano gets hits that provide opportunity and momentum for the rest of the lineup.

Using Stathead, we can pull the data we need to make a clear assessment of Solano’s performance in potential run-scoring situations. Here are the results for all his plate appearances with runners in scoring position from 2021 and 2023. Below the big breakdown table is a summary of his statistics. Let’s compare, shall we?

Those 2023 numbers look bigger. He gets a hit over 10% more often with runners in scoring position this year than in 2021, and gets on base over 20% more often. When he puts the ball in play in these situations he gets a hit 50% of the time in 2023 compared to about 28% in 2021. His WPA when runners are in scoring position this year is 1.4, which thoroughly embarrasses his -0.6 clip in 2021.

Donnie Barrels is making good contact when it matters this year, and it’s been paying off.

Looking only at late-game performance with runners in scoring position—in the 7th inning or after—we get a slight regression in his basic stats but the trends still hold. His WPA in these situations is 0.9, again much higher than the detrimental -0.2 in 2021. With the game on the line Solano has made a difference, verifying my gut check on the value he’s added to the Twins versus the opportunities he took away while with the Giants. Key moments stick with sports fans, both the successes and failures. My anecdotal feelings do happen to match reality this time.

Seasonal Context

There’s one more factor to address. The 2023 Minnesota Twins are a far cry from the unexpected success of the 2021 Giants. I was swept up in the excitement of their 107 win-season two years ago as they shocked the world, and Los Angeles in particular, to win the NL West division.

Meanwhile the Twins are treading water, leading the Comedy Central division by simply having a winning record. If they win more than 85 games I’ll be shocked.

On an electric team of veterans, six of whom accumulated at least 2 WAR, Solano spent 2021 riding their coattails by getting hits in low-leverage situations. He had the eighth-best WPA on the team, and among qualified hitters he had the worst OPS+ in the lineup. His slightly-above-average season, mostly spent playing 2nd base, had no hope of standing out against the resurgence of Brandon Crawford at shortstop.

With a slight boost in performance while on a mediocre team, he now appears to be an absolute gem. He’s the third-best qualified hitter on the Twins by OPS+⁶Also, every qualified hitter worse than him on the Twins has an OPS+ below 100, meaning they’re hitting below league average. To be fair, the Twins have had a revolving door of high-caliber prospects joining the team since mid-summer who have been killing the ball. If we ignore qualified status, he’s eighth-best on the team. and is second in both WPA and Clutch factor. He leads the team in RE24. The guy is making things happen for the Twins and it’s been fun to watch.

I briefly noted above that Donovan’s strikeout rate is 6% worse this year than in 2021. Perhaps he’s swinging a bit harder, improving that hard-hit percentage, and missing pitches slightly more frequently. Yet he’s not letting it affect his ability to get hits with runners on. And even though he’s striking out 22.5% of the time, he’s still below the league’s average rate of 23.1%, and well below the Twins’ rate of 27.1%. In fact, only two qualified hitters on the Twins have struck out less frequently than Solano.⁷Even if you include unqualified hitters, there are only 4 Twins hitters who strike out less frequently. This strikeout increase doesn’t register because he had room to get worse without it being notable. If a change in approach made him slightly more prone to strikeouts while boosting his other hitting abilities to push them above average, that’s a solid tradeoff.

A Final Hope

I have no clue if Solano has changed his approach to the plate⁸A day after I wrote this entire draft, The Athletic came out with this article explaining how the Twins hitters have become more aggressive earlier in the count partway through the season. It provides at least part of the explanation for what may have helped Solano in particular. or otherwise improved his confidence, but it’s been clear to my heart—and now it’s proven to my head—that he is squaring up the ball in intense situations. His at-bats are solid and he doesn’t seem fazed by late-inning drama. Maybe it’s the wisdom of age or the change of scenery. He certainly must feel less pressure trying to perform for this Minnesota team than he did in the whirlwind that was 2021 in San Francisco. Regardless of what caused this change, I’m happy he’s doing it for my team. All I can hope is that we survive long enough to actually get a playoff win. Solano could be the one to make it happen.

• 1
  His performance was worth 1.1 wins for the Giants above an “average” replacement player, meaning a player who’s just good enough to eke out a living in MLB. WAR is also a “counting” stat that accumulates throughout the season (or, if you have a slump, can tumble back down.)
• 2
  We can acknowledge the potential bias of a lifelong Twins fan, but I’m not a real “homer”. I love the team, but am critical of its players. The real bias is that I watched dozens of Giants games in person in 2021, while I’ve watched maybe a dozen Twins games in full this year on TV, instead mainly watching highlights. That can certainly skew perspective.
• 3
  Batting Average on Balls in Play. Basically, if he actually manages to make contact with the ball so that it could be a hit, how often does it become a hit?
• 4
  How often does he hit a ball at least 95 MPH off the bat.
• 5
  I will note he’s also striking out 6% more this year than in 2021. We’ll address that in a bit.
• 6
  Also, every qualified hitter worse than him on the Twins has an OPS+ below 100, meaning they’re hitting below league average. To be fair, the Twins have had a revolving door of high-caliber prospects joining the team since mid-summer who have been killing the ball. If we ignore qualified status, he’s eighth-best on the team.
• 7
  Even if you include unqualified hitters, there are only 4 Twins hitters who strike out less frequently.
• 8
  A day after I wrote this entire draft, The Athletic came out with this article explaining how the Twins hitters have become more aggressive earlier in the count partway through the season. It provides at least part of the explanation for what may have helped Solano in particular.