2022 Blogmas Day 17 - Expected FIP

FIP is a cool, clever, and simple statistic to try and normalize how we work with ERA in a way that simply ignores defensive factors. However, we can ignore, or normalize for, at least one other factor to adjust the comparison. ...

December 17, 2022 · 2 min · 304 words · Mark Richard

2022 Blogmas Day 15 - Fielding Independent Pitching

Remember many days ago when we talked about how pesky it is to have a ball in play? That’s as true for pitchers as it is for hitters. So, some enterprising folks struck out to roughly measure ERA in a way that ignores balls put in play, instead focusing entirely on the Three True Outcomes. Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is a defense-agnostic statistic to compare against ERA, and in some ways is an ideal “predictor” statistic for ERA. ...

December 15, 2022 · 4 min · 787 words · Mark Richard

2022 Blogmas Day 14 - ERA+

That’s right, the “+” statistics exist in the realm of pitching. Park adjustments and a percentage normalization is a natural extension of ERA, and makes it more meaningful for directly comparing pitchers, even across generations. ...

December 14, 2022 · 3 min · 607 words · Mark Richard

2022 Blogmas Day 13 - Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched

While ERA is a measure of overall pitcher effectiveness, there’s a more nuanced statistic that considers how frequently a pitcher allows runners on base. Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched (WHIP) is easy to calculate, has a cool acronym, and is another factor to consider when measuring how good a pitcher is at keeping hitters from doing their jobs. ...

December 13, 2022 · 3 min · 428 words · Mark Richard

2022 Blogmas Day 11 - Earned Run Average

Let us leave the world of sluggers and slap-hitters behind us, and move 60 feet forward to the pitcher’s mound. I’ve always enjoyed and valued pitching over hitting in my baseball life. As such, the first ten days of hitting required me to learn more than I anticipated, while I feel more prepared to handle this section of Blogmas.1 We’re not starting as simple as possible, but we are starting with the most important of the original pitching statistics: how good are you at preventing runs from scoring? ...

December 11, 2022 · 4 min · 764 words · Mark Richard

2022 Blogmas Day 9 - Offensive Wins Above Replacement

Today we move onto one of the gems of advanced baseball statistics1 that generalizes player value beyond concrete elements like hits and runs, and looks specifically at how many wins a player is worth. ...

December 9, 2022 · 7 min · 1456 words · Mark Richard

2022 Blogmas Day 8 - Weighted Runs Above Average and Runs Created

Let’s dive back into the weeds. Hitting the ball and getting on base are important jobs for hitters. But what actually wins the game? Scoring more runs than the other team. Today, we’ll look at two ways of quantifying run production, both of which are weighted in the same way we saw with wOBA. ...

December 8, 2022 · 4 min · 795 words · Mark Richard

2022 Blogmas Day 7 - Batting Average on Balls in Play

Today we’ll look at a statistic that is interesting for both the offensive and defensive side of baseball. When a ball is put in play, how often does it go for a hit? ...

December 7, 2022 · 3 min · 595 words · Mark Richard

2022 Blogmas Day 6 - Isolated Power

In another day of simpler statistics, Isolated Power (ISO) is derived from slugging percentage. It’s calculated in the exact same way, but ignores singles. Hence, it is isolating the power of a hitter, defined as the rate at which they get extra-base hits. ...

December 6, 2022 · 2 min · 244 words · Mark Richard

2022 Blogmas Day 5 - Three True Outcomes

Let’s take a step back today and consider an overall shift in the way baseball has been played over the last few decades. ...

December 5, 2022 · 4 min · 817 words · Mark Richard