Sports

Each time I sit down to establish my feelings about the new MLB rules going into the 2023 season, I flounder. I have a hard time separating the baseball I know and love from the inevitable future version it must become if it’s to survive and hopefully thrive. I can only imagine what the players faced with learning these new rules must feel, because some of the changes are rather drastic. Consider this post a snapshot of my mind right now. It’s not clean or concise, and my feelings will change once I get a few games under my belt this year and see the practical ways these rules affect gameplay. But here’s where my heart and my head lie for now. ...

This Blogmas experience proved to be a fun, engaging, and informative project. I wasn’t sure how it would go, but I’m glad I dove in and made it happen.1 ...

Hot on the heels of Ultimate Zone Rating is another tool with the same goal: measure a player’s defensive contributions in terms of runs saved. This other statistic, Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), doesn’t just have a better name, but in my experience is favored over UZR in most situations. ...

Thanks to the wonderful book The Last Nine Innings by Charles Euchner1 I had an early introduction to some advanced statistics, at least those that were popular a few years into the 21st century. Among these was Ultimate Zone Rating, a first crack at trying to measure how well a player defends their position. ...

Leading into the home stretch, let’s discuss some defensive statistics. As a category, these represent recent innovations in baseball, as defense is the most dynamic aspect of the game. Players can change where they are positioned, which affects their ability to get to a ball. As we gather more data — ball speed off the bat and launch angle — we can better analyze defensive ability. But it’s still messy. ...

We’ve already addressed the concept behind WAR (Wins Above Replacement) in the abstract and for offensive players in particular. Today, we’ll consider how we quantify runs for pitchers and overview calculating their WAR. ...

Relief pitchers can enter the game in very different situations, and that should be accounted for when evaluating their performance. Coming in to clean up a 12-0 victory (or defeat) is different than coming in during a close, tense game with a lot on the line. We measure this disparity using Leverage Index (LI). ...

ERA+ is a funny, messy statistic. Unlike OPS+, it doesn’t tell us how much better a player is than the league: it instead tells us how much worse the league is than the player. This ignores our intuition and causes unnecessary confusion. Furthermore, it makes it harder to use as a tool for direct comparison: someone with a 200 ERA+ is not twice as good as someone with a 150 ERA+, while that would effectively be true with OPS+ (and similar offensive statistics.) ...

FIP is a cool, clever, and simple statistic to try and normalize how we work with ERA in a way that simply ignores defensive factors. However, we can ignore, or normalize for, at least one other factor to adjust the comparison. ...

Halfway through our pitching posts, let’s take a step back and learn about some miscellaneous statistics that we’ve either barely touched, or entirely ignored. These are all counting statistics that we use to help determine value and ability. While most are not explicitly used when calculating advanced statistics, they have historical cachet and many fans (including me) still enjoy looking at them. ...