2022 Blogmas Day 12 – Other Basic Pitching Statistics

While ERA is the best way among the simple statistics to compare pitchers, it does not tell the whole story of their season. Historically, there is much interest in the details of a pitcher’s approach and how that influences their ERA. Does a pitcher rely on power and strikeouts, or precision and defense?

Strikeouts and Walks

We use strikeouts¹ and walks² as a proxy for two dimensions of a pitcher’s approach: Do they have particularly tricky and/or powerful stuff, and are they precise with their pitching?

Getting many strikeouts is not inherently better than not getting strikeouts, but in the Three True Outcome world it sure is simpler to get a strikeout because the defense is taken out of the equation. However, it typically requires more pitches to get a strikeout. Since the current “wisdom” among MLB does not like to allow starting pitchers to throw very many pitches, a somewhat inefficient strikeout pitcher could be worth less because they won’t be allowed to go as many innings as a pitcher who allows more contact, and gets out faster as a result.

Walks, on the other hand, are bad. They will always happen, but a pitcher is freely allowing a runner on which gives them something else to worry about, and increases the likelihood that a run will score. While a lack of walks is no guarantee of success — you could just be throwing the ball down the middle far too often and giving up runs the old-fashioned way — it’s generally a better approach.

Strikeouts and ERA are part of the Pitcher Triple Crown, along with Wins.³ Historically we love to keep track of strikeouts because they show a clear victory over the batter. While it’s not the most important aspect, I’m still biased towards big strikeout numbers by pitchers.

One final note: we also tend to keep track of strikeout and walk rates per nine innings, just like with ERA. We also consider strikeouts per walk as a great measure of pitching prowess. These are all fun rate statistics that we can use to compare ability.

Wins and Losses

It’s likely that pitcher wins and losses are the statistic in baseball that have fallen the furthest from grace over time. What was once considered perhaps the most important statistic — you would never win the Cy Young award⁴ without a very good Win-Loss record — has finally been realized among modern fans as mostly bogus.

Let’s define the semi-complicated criteria for a “Win”. If you’re the starting pitcher, the first requirement is that you complete 5 innings in the game. Assuming that happens, your team must be in the lead by the team you are replaced, and remain in the lead until the end of the game. Only then do you get the win. If you leave the game with your team losing, and they remain behind until they ultimately lose, you get a Loss. If neither of those things occur you get a No Decision.

For relief pitchers, the rules are the same except for the inning requirement. If you’re the active pitcher when your team gets ahead for the final time, you get the win. If you’re the pitcher when the opposing team gets ahead for the final time, you get the loss.

Up until the last several decades, wins made more sense to track and value. Starting pitchers would frequently pitch the entire game, or at least a larger majority of the game. If they were effective (i.e. their ERA was low), this would give the offense a chance to score enough runs to win. In theory, if one pitcher was “better” than another, on average we’d expect the better pitcher to give up fewer runs than the worse pitcher, resulting in the better pitcher likely getting a win.

But it’s easy to see where this falls apart. Some pitchers are just consistently screwed over by their offense. A pitcher with a sub-2.50 ERA who wins barely half their games because the team provides an average of 2 runs per game on offense is clearly better than a pitcher with a 3.50 ERA whose team gives them 5 runs of support on average and has a great W-L record. (And, yet again, if you want a great example of this watch this video from Foolish Baseball.)

Wins are finally becoming less valued. While they provide context for the environment in which a pitcher plays, they are not strictly indicative of talent or ability.

Let’s close out with a few fun facts.

Since 1920, there have only been two qualified starting pitchers who had more wins than walks: Clayton Kershaw in 2016 (11 walks against 12 wins), and Bret Saberhagen in 1994 (13 walks against 14 wins).
Three other qualified starters had equal numbers of walks and wins. Marco Gonzales had 7 of each in 2020,⁵ and amazingly two Twins players: Carlos Silva in 2005 (9 of each) and Phil Hughes in 2014 (16 of each).
In 2016 Clayton Kershaw also set a record when he managed 15.64 strikeouts for every walk issued.

Continue to Day 13 – Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched

1
It’s worth addressing that historically we’ve used “K” for strikeout, because “SO” used to mean shutout. Now, you’ll still see K when scorekeeping and in some statistics, but sites like Baseball Reference have switched to SO for strikeout, and SHO for shutout.
2
As mentioned in the hitting series, this is abbreviated “BB” for “Base on Balls”.
3
For batters, it’s BA, RBI, and HR.
4
An annual award given to the “best” pitcher. It’s essentially the MVP but only for pitchers.
5
Of course 2020 was a shortened season so it’s very unlikely this would have sustained for a full season.

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